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[TMA] Uncertainty is Opportunity

· By Peter Merholz · 3 min read

About a year and a half ago, Jesse and I discussed what we called The Phase Shift: this sense that the steady progress we'd been witnessing in Design for nearly 25 years had been disrupted, with deep uncertainty as to where things were going. Matters have only gotten more acute since then, particularly with the rise of technologies like LLMs and Generative AI.

As we witnessed many of our peers approach this with doubt (about their value) and fear (of their employability), we actively engaged this subject on Finding Our Way. 18 months later, we still haven't figured out whatever's next.

However, we do believe that capable, confident design leaders can see this uncertainty not as a threat, but as an opportunity: to redefine their role, their value, and, ultimately, their direction.

I see this as a kind of "Physician, heal thyself" moment, in that many of these folks are perfectly using the tools of design to help clients and companies managing ambiguity and uncertainty, but it somehow never occurs to them to apply these tools to themselves.

This will be a prevailing theme in our opening keynote at the Service Design Global Conference, taking place October 16-17 in Dallas and remotely for those who cannot, or understandably will not, make their way to Texas. We're excited for the chance to share our perspective, and curious to see how it contributes to the broader conversation.

The Pigeonholing of "User Experience Design"

I got some unexpected LinkedIn traction with my lament about witnessing a presentation that reduced User Experience Design to screens, and my curiosity as to how this reduction occurred. There are now 121 comments, and many of them worthwhile. A few that stood out:

Fredrik Matheson's is too lengthy to fully quote, so an excerpt: "[D]id we do this to ourselves? No. Demand for our labor was high, and we couldn't match it with qualified supply."

Sylvia Bargellini linked to this diagram comparing UI, UX, Product Design, and CX, and I came away depressed, but with better understanding of how it's all perceived.

John Gleason (a voice always worth listening to) shared: "It likely FIRST started with the bosses - cross-functional colleagues & senior leaders - slowly creating their own definition for what THEY saw being designed. Gravitating to the easy-to-digest 'tangible output' or the 'artifact' being created."

But, I think we should blame Andy Polaine, as he takes responsibility: "Well. I’ve been one of those people saying this..." Actually, his full response is more nuanced and worth reading.

Speaking of User Experience History...

I'm a bit of a nerd for history about the field of user experience, so I was surprised to learn that the phrase "user-centered design" preceded the book User Centered System Design co-edited by Norman and Draper. Pavel hipped me to it being coined in 1977, and Tim cited the specific article, "The Organizational Context of User-Centered Software Design".

The practice of user-centered design predates that. The earliest writing about it of which I'm aware is Henry Dreyfuss' Designing for People, chapter 4 of which is title "The Importance of Testing," and where he explicates how he observes people using the solutions he creates.

Coming to Toronto November 17-21

Once again, I'm participating in North America's only public in-person conference dedicated to design leadership, the Design Leadership Summit, teaching a masterclass on November 17th, and helping curate the main program on the 18th and 19th. I'm there through the week, and if we should connect... let me know!

Updated on Oct 6, 2025